HOW WILL THE PARIS ATTACKS AFFECT MARKETS?
Markets gave up gains last week and closed lower, ending the worst week since mid-August. Nerves about a possible December rate hike and faltering commodity prices contributed to selling pressure. For the week, the S&P 500 lost 3.63%, the Dow fell 3.71%, and the NASDAQ dropped 4.26%.[1]
A series of coordinated terrorist attacks shook Paris on Friday, leading to at least 129 dead and hundreds wounded.[2] Our thoughts are with the victims and their families in this terrible time. Coming on top of suicide bomber attacks in Beirut on Thursday and the possible bomb-related downing of a Russian charter flight in October, the attacks have highlighted the global threat posed by ongoing violence in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan.[3]
American officials were quick to announce that no “credible threat” exists against U.S. targets, for which we are thankful.[4] As attention turns to analyzing the attacks, experts around the world are already thinking about the financial, economic, and security implications of these new threats.
How will markets react to the attacks?
As always, there is no way to know for sure how single events will affect markets. However, we can take some educated guesses:[5]
Volatility in financial markets around the world is likely as investors react to geopolitical uncertainty and the expectation that western nations may take a more active role in overseas conflicts. Oil may experience a rally as investors hedge their bets against further instability in the Middle East. U.S. Treasuries and other so-called “safe haven” investments may see interest as investors seek shelter from uncertainty.
The Euro may drop against the U.S. dollar and other currencies because of increased headwinds. Though the deplorable attacks are terrible in their human cost, they likely won’t change the overall market calculus for U.S. investors. We will wait and see what happens this week in European markets and will advise you of any concerns as needed.
Looking ahead, investors will be concerned with economic reports and the upcoming December Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Minutes from the last FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday, and analysts will be searching for clues about a potential December interest rate hike.[6]
ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
Monday: Empire State Mfg. Survey
Tuesday: Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production, Housing Market Index, Treasury International Capital
Wednesday: Housing Starts, EIA Petroleum Status Report, FOMC Minutes
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Notes: All index returns exclude reinvested dividends, and the 5-year and 10-year returns are annualized. Sources: Yahoo! Finance and Treasury.gov. International performance is represented by the MSCI EAFE Index. Corporate bond performance is represented by the DJCBP. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
Retail sales edge upward. October retail sales rose less than expected, growing just 0.1% vs. the 0.3% forecast. A surprise decline in auto sales contributed, tamping down on growth expectations for the fourth quarter.[7]
Weekly jobless claims unchanged. New claims for jobless benefits remained steady last week, bolstering opinions that the labor market continues to strengthen.[8]
Business inventories rises. Inventories rose unexpectedly in September, suggesting that third-quarter economic growth data may be revised upward.[9]
Consumer sentiment rebounds. After losing confidence in September, U.S. consumers regained their optimism in November for the second straight month, mainly on hopes about a strong domestic economy.[10]
These are the views of Platinum Advisor Marketing Strategies, LLC, and not necessarily those of the named representative, Broker dealer or Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named representative nor the named Broker dealer or Investment Advisor gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial advisor for further information.
Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.
Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.
The Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of stocks of technology companies and growth companies.
The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.
The Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index is a 96-bond index designed to represent the market performance, on a total-return basis, of investment-grade bonds issued by leading U.S. companies. Bonds are equally weighted by maturity cell, industry sector, and the overall index.
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the leading measures of U.S. residential real estate prices, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate. The index is made up of measures of real estate prices in 20 cities and weighted to produce the index.
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
Google Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
You cannot invest directly in an index.
Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.
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